• 2 Posts
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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • Short version, two coin flips. There are 4 options:

    HH, HT, TH, TT

    So there’s two chances to get one Tails and one Heads, out of 4, so 2/4 = 1/2, half the tosses. Then 1/4 on each of HH and TT.

    So rolling one Tails is more likely than rolling two.

    But once you’ve flipped the first coin, it’s “locked in”. If it was Heads, the only options left to you are HT and HH. The fact that there could have been a T that, if flipped first, would land us in TH is irrelevant fantasy. We’ve got the H, and all that’s left is HT or HH, even odds.

    Dice are the same. What makes a double 1 rare is that you have to roll 1 specifically and only two times to get there, whereas a single 1 can be first or second, and the other number can be any of the other 19 other numbers. It’s the duplication of different results we consider “the same” that make one thing more likely. But once you’ve already rolled a 1, none of that matters anymore. Now it’s just 20 numbers, each equally likely. We’re locked in.



  • True! It’s not unique to the right, but I do think it shows up there a lot. It’s a very Objective view of the world (there is a Right and Wrong, outside of culture), and there’s more objectivity on the right, and more subjectivity on the left. Not universally, but more.

    I think the way this manifests on the left is actually pretty different, perhaps even the opposite, to the way it shows up on at least the current right.

    The current right has Good People who can do no Bad, no matter how much wrong they do. So they can get away with a lot, even in the face of overwhelming evidence, and their base will support them anyway because they’re still a Good Person.

    Whereas on the left we’re maybe a bit quick to dismiss someone outright, or lose the forest for the trees, because we think of ourselves as the side of Morality. So there can be a person who does a lot of good, and seems like a Good Person, and then one thing can come out about them, maybe not even a substantiated thing. Maybe something they did 25 years ago, that they would never do today, and in an instant everyone has flipped on them. You see, people are either Good People or Bad People, and if you’ve done a Bad thing, you must not have been a Good Person afterall! You were a Bad Person in disguise! Thank goodness we caught you and ousted you, so we can continue to be the side of only Good People.

    Shouldn’t we be the side of spectrums? Of forgiveness? Of growth, and healing, and learning, and rehabilitation? Grace and second chances?

    I mean, don’t get fooled over and over by the same grifter, but there could at least be some room to say oops, sorry, and then do better going forwards.


  • Right exactly! Like the sibling comment says, in their minds Trans people are Bad. You can tell because “they’re sick”. (I don’t believe this, I’m mimicking this mindset). Minorities are Bad. You can tell because they don’t have money, they do different stuff than I do, which is Good stuff, and they do crimes and are bad parents or whatever. Doesn’t matter what.

    So anyway, this Knight of Justice, Paragon of Good, was out there saying the Good People are being passed over in favour of the Bad People, which is obviously unacceptable. And that the problems with society aren’t caused by Good People, they’re caused by Bad People. And then right in the middle of his speech, a Bad Person shoots and kills him! How do we know they were a Bad Person without knowing who they are? It’s self-evident because no Good Person would kill another Good Person.

    This is like if Superman died, and then the credits rolled! That’s not the way this is meant to go! This is an afront to nature! This is a tragedy. To them.


  • It’s actually, sadly, quite easy. In her mind there are no shades of grey, no systems, no circumstances. There are people who are Good People and people who are Bad People, and which people are which is self-evident and not as related to their actions as you might think. It’s just a case of identity. They’re Good when they do bad things, and Bad People are bad even when occasionally doing good.

    And so celebrating the death of a Bad Person is honorable, obviously, and celebrating the death of a Good Person is sickening and deplorable. Clearly.

    And if I agreed that this was the way the world was, I’d probably agree with her. Unfortunately for me, that seems fucking nuts.




  • The tailscale clients are, I believe, open source. It’s just the server that’s not, and you can run the unofficial but well supported “headscale” as a server if you want. But this requires you to run this somewhere publicly accessible, like a VPS, for coordination and NAT-punching purposes.

    But! I’m pretty sure as the business operates right now, that tailscale doesn’t have access to the actual data connections or anything, it’s all encrypted, they’re basically just there for simplicity and coordination. And their business model is to offer simple things for free, like small numbers of devices, with the hope that you like the service and convince your business to pay for the fancy version for money. So I don’t think it’s quite as bad as the typical “free because I’m harvesting your data” models.

    That all having been said, I run headscale 😛


  • I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume what you said was simply confusing, but not wrong.

    So just to be clear if your raid array fails, and you’re using software raid, you can plug all of the disks into a new machine and use it there. But you can’t just take a single disk out of a raid 5 array, for example, and plug it in and use it as a normal USB hard drive that just had some of the files on it, or something. Even if you built the array using soft-raid.



  • I’m not disagreeing with you, but am genuinely curious how “fairness” was counted. I feel we have a thing right now where one side will present a well reasoned, data driven, argument. And the other side will hastily throw together something based on vibes that mostly doesn’t address the issue at all. But out of a sense of fairness our current media feels like it has to present both as though they’re two equally effective tradeoffs when actually one is empty noise.

    So I’d be very curious if this system has a way of preserving true fairness without devolving into false equality in some way. Obviously nothing is perfect, but I’m curious.