Just for added context, the NIH is the largest funder of medical research in the United States by far. This is absolutely devastating to medical research across the entire country, and the world considering how sprawling and interconnected many of these projects are. This is money that was by law supposed to be distributed to researchers doing important work across the country and internationally, on everything from Alzheimers to cancer to ALS. This will mean the closure of many labs, interrupted and halted clinical trials, many scientists, technicians and coordinators being laid off, and many young scientists never even getting the chance to get their career of the ground. The breadth of the damage from this blatantly illegal sequestration of funds is difficult to describe.

Edit: Headline was changed shortly after I posted this. Decision was so horrific even they reversed themselves after only hours. Even without this things are still bad at NIH though and with medical research funding, so please keep talking to anyone you can about supporting medical research and stopping republicans from destroying it.

Polling errors are not predictable beforehand. If they were, we wouldn’t have polling errors. In 2022 for instance there was polling error in favor of democrats not against (or at least too much emphasis on polls with errors in Republican favor).

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

We can’t know the electorate beforehand, so poll weighting and deciding who is a likely voter is always going to involve some guesswork. So the opposite of what you say is true as well, if there is a small polling error that overstates Trump’s support it would have Kamala sweeping every swing state.

But the polls show a close election, all we can do is do our best to do things that help her win. Like voting early to make sure our vote gets in no matter what, encouraging people we know to register and vote, volunteering, canvassing, donating, etc.

Also important to know, if democrats take back the house, Johnson would no longer be speaker at the time the presidential election is certified. It’s the next congress, not the current one, that will certify the vote. New congress is seated on January 3rd 2025, and the presidential election certification is on January 6th 2025.

I hate these hyperbolic headlines describing some tiny poll movement in a single poll well within the margin of error, describing it a some definitive clear change in support.

Here’s the times sienna poll today for instance, another high quality pollster, where she went from tied to now 3% ahead and is leading for the first time in that poll since July.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4921203-kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-new-york-times-poll/

If the race is truly a 3 point gap right now, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent, you’re going to see polls with her everywhere from one behind to 7 ahead. It’s a bad idea to hyper scrutinize or draw big conclusions from tiny changes in one poll.

This is why we so desperately need the voting rights act back. It used to be that changes like this required pre clearance before taking effect, and any challenges be worked out before hand.

Another terrible supreme court decision courtesy conservatives/Republicans who don’t respect the right to vote.

So the model image you posted above there says it’s more likely that Trump wins the election than it is flipping two heads in a row while flipping a coin. This is saying it’s less likely for Trump to win than Hillary to win, but something that could fairly easily happen still. These aren’t poll numbers, where 70-30 would be a massive blow out. This is a 30% chance of winning for Trump, closer to a coin flip than a sure thing.

A lot of other models were saying something ridiculous like Clinton had 95% chance to win or something. Nate Silver’s model seems better than others based on this, if anything.

Geeze dude, half of the shit in there is out of Trump’s own mouth. The first quote I listed was from the interview you posted! From Sean Hannity! If you’re not just a troll, you really need to take a step back and at least listen to some of the things your own god king is saying.

And yeah I’ll be sure not to vote for Hunter Biden or his laptop for president, thanks.

Yeah, par for the course for Hannity and anything fox news related, misleading headline and quote, from a misleading non-answer by Trump that’s so all over the place it’s hard to follow. Even the tiny little portion they clipped out, he goes on to say he has “every right” to go after Biden if elected.

Look, when this election is over, based on what they’ve done, I would have every right to go after them, and it’s easy, because it’s Joe Biden and you see all the criminality, all of the money that’s going into the family and him, all of this money from China, from Russia, from Ukraine

And his accusations that Biden is directing his prosecution (especially ridiculous when two of the cases are state cases) are all projection anyways to distract from the fact that he’s already tried to interfere at the justice department many times when he was president.

“Trump ratchets up call for DOJ to investigate Hillary Clinton” https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/03/trump-doj-investigate-hillary-clinton-244505

“Trump ups pressure on Barr to probe Bidens as election nears” https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-william-barr-elections-20fd56b64801dd83b1657c630a1ebdfa

“Trump breaches boundaries by saying DOJ should be ‘going after’ Democrats” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-breaches-boundaries-by-saying-doj-should-be-going-after-democrats/2017/11/03/1c157c08-c0aa-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html

“‘Where are all of the arrests?’: Trump demands Barr lock up his foes” https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/07/trump-demands-barr-arrest-foes-427389

“Report: Trump wanted to prosecute Comey, Hillary Clinton” https://apnews.com/article/060ca2399a744b4a9554dbd2ec276a90

Such a short memory Trump has. So yes, it is very true, and he’s already tried to do it many times. I know you’re probably a troll posting misinformation, this comment is for anyone else reading.

So then we don’t have to give money to Israel if we keep going after tax cheats instead? Sounds great, let’s do that