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Cake day: June 29th, 2023

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  • Disregarding sampling bias and other effects, sure, 1,245 is enough for a statistically significant representative sample. You can’t do a lot of subsampling or cohort analysis from it, but if you just want to infer the behavior and attitudes of “Americans” and you sample that many Americans effectively enough, you’re fine.

    But practically speaking, no. You’re not going to sample that many Americans effectively enough. Polling is a shitshow these days.